Can Scotland beat England and stay in the World Cup?

The answer on paper, and that of someone looking at recent performances, results and statistics of the two teams would be no. Scotland do not have a chance of beating England by the necessary 8 points to continue into the quarter finals, and Argentina will take their place after beating them last weekend. However, this is not fact, and Scotland can win. In fact some may argue that Scotland will win should they adopt the correct game-plan, strategy and perform at the top of their game for the whole of the game.

I’m not going to go into the selection of the Scotland team, whether it is in my opinion the best suited team to perform the task in hand, but I will discuss how the team can win, and the type of game they should play in order to do so. As of late Scotland have been more expansive in the way they have played. The players picked and the style played has allowed for more running rugby, and this is a positive for the Nation’s game if we are to compete with the World’s elite.

However, this change in style cannot be a success overnight, and if we are honest Scotland had not adjusted to it yet. It is a change adopted to create more tries, but five-pointers have still been few and far between, even against the weaker Nations. Although this development in expansive rugby must continue in Scotland, for tomorrow’s game, it is unlikely it will win the game.

England are a big side. They are a big side who are defensively very efficient having only conceded 22 points and one try in their three opening World Cup 2011 games. In contrast Scotland have scored tries in only one game so far in their campaign, so realistically the game will not be won by Scotland out-scoring England with tries. It may not be pretty, but if Scotland are to win this game they need to concentrate on three things. Possession, territory and kicking.

At first, the omission of Graeme Morrison was a big surprise to me, as Andy Robinson has often stated his admiration and belief in this player. However, with Sean Lamont at inside-centre, we now know the game cannot be too expansive. Lamont, a natural winger has great power and pace and is extremely reluctant, not always to the team’s advantage, to pass the ball. This determination in going forward, if supported and secured well, could be key in ball retention and will offer outside-half Jackson good ball to control the game.

Lamont is a big strong defender also. He may not have the complete knowledge of alignment in defence at inside-centre but his presence and skills in the collision could help nullify one of England’s biggest threats, Manu Tuilagi. If Scotland play a one-out defensive line Lamont needs to let Tuilagi know early on that he is there, and he will be there for 80 minutes and will not take a backwards step. Around him in the midfield, as well as the rest of the pitch, Scotland can afford no missed tackles, and shoulder contact and grounding opponents need to be the emphasis, not grabbing or sticking arms out.

Jackson will need to be thinking of the three vital elements I mentioned, and Blair has the experience and leadership to guide and help him in these aspects. Blair has often produced mesmerising attacking exploits, but his job tomorrow must be in keeping the game tight and controlling the players around him to adhere to the game plan. The half-backs must kick well and at the right time to gain the territory to allow Paterson to gain points from the boot. Poor kicks at the wrong time, will allow Foden and company to counter with potential danger.

The Scotland forwards will know they will be at war tomorrow, and if they can dominate the breakdown, the team are in with a chance. This is no mean feat against a strong, experienced England pack, but against the Auld Enemy, I’m sure the players will be prepared to endure some bodily trauma. Argentina stopped Scotland from playing by isolating the ball carriers and turning ball over, and this is a ploy the Scottish forwards must try to adapt. Any turnover will be huge for the team, and when it happens, the emphasis must be on retaining the ball.

This may all come across as negative rugby, but in the situation, it may be the only option. Sure, if the ball is good, and Scotland are on the front-foot with numbers, players like Danielli and Evans can score tries, but if runs are mistimed Tuilagi and Tindall will take advantage.

There is not much more to be said. England have no pressure on them as they are through, but against Scotland they certainly won’t play with complacency. It is a mighty task for Scotland, and one, which if completed, will remain in Scottish rugby history books forever.